The Intrinsic Value Podcast 对 $ADBE 的判断变化

2026-08-20

《Ranking SaaS Best Buys Today and Long-Term + Watchlist Review》

Adobe因机构广泛使用而成为强劲的短期买入标的（A级），但面临来自AI竞争和商业模式转变的长期不确定性（B/C级）。

所以基本上这意味着我们可以说，好吧，让我们把Adobe放在S和80之间，只是作为一个例子，那意味着在10年或20年后，我们相信Adobe仍然存在，并且会比今天更强大。

So basically what that means is we could say okay well let's put Adobe here between S and 80 right just as an example um that would mean okay in 10 or 20 years time we believe Adobe will be still existing and will be a stronger company than today

然后我们还有一个今天的价值层级列表，同时在一定程度上我们会讨论同样的公司，但前提是问我们是否相信Adobe在未来，我想说，肖恩，给我你的想法，但我会说一到四年内会是一家好公司。

and then we also have a value today tier list where simultaneously to some extent we'll discuss the same companies but with the premise of saying well do we believe Adobe will be a good company in the next I would say Sean give me your thoughts but I would say like one to four years.

看原视频00:56

2026-08-16

《Adobe, Lululemon, PayPal – Are our Biggest Losers a Buy Now?》

Adobe是一个存在矛盾的持有评级；以八倍前瞻市盈率来看，其估值合理，财务状况强劲且市场地位稳固，但AI颠覆风险和管理层问题带来不确定性。

这就是我们在 Adobe、Lululemon 以及所有这些公司身上看到的情况。

That's what we saw with Adobe, Lululemon, all of those companies.

在我们的内在价值投资组合中，有一个仓位一直在所有这些资本配置战争中获胜，那就是 Adobe。我们增持了 Adobe 的仓位，我已经不得不查了四次。

one position that kept winning all of these capital allocation wars in our intrinsic value portfolio has been Adobe. We added to our Adobe position and I had to look it up four times already.

我还可以剧透一下，我们从中得到的第一条教训是，只有当股价至少从我们的入场价下跌 15% 到 20% 时才加倍下注，因为我们一直在 380 到 315 的区间买入，回头看这可能有点太贵了。

And I can also spoil that the first lesson we need to take from this is only double down when the stock is at least down 15 to 20% from our entry price because we kept buying in the range from 380 to 315 which looking back at it might have been a bit too expensive.

看原视频28:36