Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 对 $BABA 的判断变化

2026-09-03看跌
5 Interesting Value Bets From Investing Quadrant
阿里巴巴过去的承诺未兑现;仅剩AI承诺。

下一个标的是阿里巴巴。过去五年该股波动极大,先是因人工智能而大涨,后又因人工智能和资本支出而回落。我们最近在分析视频中讨论过这一点。我修正了对阿里巴巴股票的评价,因为五年前做出的承诺根本没有兑现,因此现在剩下的只有关于人工智能的承诺。

他们发布新模型和更好的模型等等。这很好,但定价非常低,这意味着这些模型之间很可能会展开价格战。如果你拥有这些模型,为了以如此低的价格运营,你需要有竞争优势。你需要能够组装起来并利用人工智能赚钱的东西。

2026-08-30看跌
Alibaba - Adjusting My Intrinsic Value Calculation
阿里巴巴的内在价值必须下调;该公司六年来未能实现增长,仍是一家零售商,当前估值无法由AI前景所支撑。

阿里巴巴公布了财报。股价对此作出反应。在过去一两年里,它涨跌很大,但我们必须看看内在价值是多少,如何调整,市盈率是多少,投资的风险和回报是什么。

Alibaba reported earnings. It's the stock reacted. It goes up and down a lot in the last year or two, but we have to see how is the intrinsic value, how to adjust that, the P ratio, what is the risk and reward of investing.

他们宣布发行100亿美元的股票。盈利,如果我们看盈利,比如说,“好吧,增长9%,电商增长4%,云增长45%,AI增长16%。”

They have announced 10 billion [snorts] dollars issuance of shares. Earnings, if we look at earnings, if you say, "Okay, 9% growth, e-commerce 4% growth, cloud 45% growth, AI 16% growth."

然后我稍微看一下现金流。经营活动产生30亿美元,资本支出90亿美元,导致负65亿美元。削减股票回购。之前是600亿美元的现金,现在降到300亿美元。回购被削减。巨额资本支出用于发展AI。

Then I look a little bit at the cash flows. 3 billion from operating activities, 9 billion CAPEX leading to 6 and 1/2 billion negative. Cut the share repurchases. The cash that was 60 billion a while ago is going down to 30 billion. Repurchases cut. Huge capital expenditures to grow into AI.