Verified Investing 对 $GDX 的判断变化

2026-09-01看跌
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GDX矿商被做空;当前价格高于约9265的首选入场水平,因此尚未建立多头仓位。

而且,就在上周,我告诉你们做空矿商股。矿商股正处于斐波那契回撤618位,即GDX。

And again, just last week, I was telling you guys, short the miners. The miners are at a Fibonacci retrace 618, the GDX.

现在,可能有一个快速的反弹机会。注意我强调“快速”,因为这并不意味着黄金不会继续下跌。但同样,让我们也看看GDX。GDX在下跌。你看,GDX还没有跌到我想要的位置。它需要进一步下跌。

我的意思是,黄金处于支撑位,但我想等GDX跌到这里再入场。所以,我不能交易GDX。黄金可能是另一种情况,但GDX如果来到大约9265这个位置,那才是我想要的入场点。那也是一个斐波那契位。

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由于资金从矿业股轮动至半导体/AI板块,GDX短期内将出现回调。

我的论点是,黄金矿业股看到了大量的散户投资,因为你能获得更高的性价比。当黄金上涨 1% 时,矿业股通常上涨 2%。最终,我认为它们跑得太快了。

And my thesis was that gold miners were seeing a lot of retail investment because you get a bigger bang for your buck. When gold goes up 1%, the miners usually go up 2%. And ultimately, I thought those got ahead of themselves.

但很大一部分原因是人们从 AI 交易和芯片股中撤出资金,转而投入矿业股、黄金等资产。好吧,既然 AI 看起来又流行了,资金很可能会从那个板块撤出。矿业股可能会在这里回调,我们将看到资金至少在短期内,随着 Nvidia 财报带来的市场光环效应,重新轮动回到半导体交易中。

But a lot of the reason was people were pulling money out of the AI trade and the chip stocks and putting it into the miners and gold and things like that. Well, now that AI looks back in vogue, money is likely going to be pulled out of that sector. The miners, the miners likely will correct here and we'll see that money rotate back into the semiconductor trade at least in the short term with Nvidia earnings glow in the markets.