Andrei Jikh 对 $MSFT 的判断变化

2026-08-19看跌
Here's What Pops This Stock Bubble
微软数据中心相关的表外租赁承诺是一项隐性负债,可能对其股价产生负面影响。

所有大型科技公司现在的支出总和已超过其收入总和。它们在人工智能上的支出超过了其全部现金流,这就是它们借贷的原因。

All the major tech companies are now spending more than they make combined. They're spending more on AI than their whole cash flow, which is why they're borrowing.

因为如果微软建造一个数据中心,那将是其财务报表上的巨额支出,其股价将会下跌。微软只是签署了一份合同,承诺在未来几年内租用它。而正是这一承诺,使得整个项目能够获得融资。

Because if Microsoft builds a data center, that's a huge expense on their financial statements and their stock will go down. Microsoft just signs a contract promising to rent it for the next several years. And that promise is what makes this whole thing financable.

然而,这一承诺并未作为债务出现在微软的资产负债表中。据高盛称,这些公司约有1.5万亿美元的租赁承诺,但其中1万亿美元并未出现在它们的资产负债表中。

Now, that promise does not show up as debt on Microsoft's balance sheet. According to Goldman Sachs, these companies have about $1 and a half trillion dollars in lease commitments, but one trillion of that does not appear on their balance sheets at all.