《Why Every Trader on Earth is Watching the 10-Year Treasury Now | WDWL》
TLT在过去六年中表现不佳，复利为负，其作为投资组合对冲工具的角色现在受到质疑。
如果你是TLT的投资者，这是iShares旗下非常受欢迎的长期国债ETF，你在2010年代以每年近8%的正复合增长率复利增长。这是一个非常赚钱的投资。在2020年代，由于实际利率从负值飙升至非常正值，你的复合年增长率在这十年至今为负4.4%。
If you were an investor in TLT, which is a very popular longdated treasury bond ETF out of EyesShares, you compounded at almost 8% a year positive through the 2010s. It was a very good money-making investment. In the 2020s, because real rates have exploded from being negative to being very positive, your kager, your compound annual growth rate over this decade so far has been negative 4.4%.
所以，这从一笔大规模赚钱的交易——做多曲线长端——变成了对投资组合回报极具破坏性的交易。嗯，长期国债投资组合每年7.8%的复合增长率，实际上从信用角度来看是无风险的。你承担的风险是久期风险，因为利率会波动。