AAPL 这一页 20 条观点条目，其中 0 条方向发生变化。
在这里，我们找到了像苹果、英伟达和好市多这样的“现金牛”公司。
Here we find "cash cow" companies such as Apple, Nvidia and Costco.
既然我们已经了解了完整的五步流程，让我们以苹果公司为例，它曾经是巴菲特持有的股票之一，并将这个清单和流程应用于它，看看何时才是好的买入时机。首先应该问的问题是：苹果的收入是否可预测？
如果你看一下苹果长期收入的图表，你会发现其收入在过去二十年中一直在稳步增长。这使得公司的收入高度可预测。因此，我们在这一点上打上“勾”。下一个问题是：苹果处于商业周期的哪个阶段？
如果看苹果，它是一只很棒的股票，而且表现非常好。沃伦·巴菲特也在卖出，但你不应该从股票市场的角度来看待投资。我们是从企业所有权的角度来看待投资的。
If we look at Apple, it's a great stock, and it has done very well . Warren Buffett was also selling, but you don't look at investing from a stock market perspective. We look at investment from a business ownership perspective.
苹果的盈利是1270亿美元，我们必须调整股票薪酬，这意味着大约1500亿美元，因为他们把钱花在股票上。如果他们分配所有资金，他们可以给你价值1150亿美元的股息。然后是增长方面。
苹果呢？苹果出现了新的买入信号，看看那个趋势。这就是我们要找的，不是吗？似乎已经触底了。趋势已经开始改变。他变得更加贪婪。这与板块内正在发生的情况相反。这一点很重要，因为任何股票30%的走势是由股票本身决定的。
只有30%。另外30%归因于板块。最后40%归因于市场。所以，我的意思是，如果板块的广度和板块的恐惧与贪婪指数对你不利，你就会面临逆风。我的建议，这不是财务建议，是做你想做的，但别听我的，那是肯定的。
接下来看苹果，该股本周在 318 美元。他们有了新 CEO，本周股价几乎保持不变。John Ternos 将接替 Tim Cook，他正在谈论下一代 iPhone 的发布，我认为我们会在未来一两周内知道发布日期。
是的，9 月 9 日。所以，下周苹果将有一场名为“Surprise and Shine”的活动。关注这些活动。那些日子总是令人愉快的。总会有一些惊喜。通常不是从硬件角度，但你会从软件角度看到一些东西。
Mac 现在发布了这些令人惊叹的产品，配备标准化的内存，范围从 256 到 512，这实际上对 Apple 来说是一个积极的信号。这很可能将其增长率从华尔街预期的 9% 提高到 20%，这再次对 Apple 来说是一个积极的信号。
Mac is now releasing these amazing products with a standardized RAM ranging from 256 to 512, which is honestly a positive sign for Apple . This could very well raise its growth rates from the 9% expected on Wall Street to 20%, which is again a positive sign for Apple.
我希望那只该死的 Apple 股票能有折扣，因为我对 Apple 持乐观态度。我只是觉得它目前有点贵。如果我现在按 Apple 的价格买入，我觉得我还不如以那些价格买入网络安全股票。
I want there to be a discount on that damn Apple stock because I'm optimistic about Apple. I just think it's a bit expensive at the moment . If I were to pay Apple's prices now, I feel I'd be better off buying cybersecurity stocks at those values.
那些折叠手机，你无法打开观看 Apple TV Plus，我认为这有点……问题是人们会买它。我认为人们对苹果的误解在于人们会买这款手机。
Well, those foldable phones phones you couldn't open up and watch Apple TV Plus, which I think is kind of And the thing is people are going to buy it. I think that's what people are missing about Apple is people are going to buy this phone.
如果你能把 iPhone Fold 放进口袋，显然你能够做到，那么你现在就有了一个更大的设备，希望你能在上面使用手写笔。
If you could put the iPhone Fold in your pocket, which obviously you will be able to, man, now you actually have a larger device that you could use hopefully, you know, the uh stylus on.
那么，让我们更深入地探讨这个问题。
Uh so, anywh who uh okay, so let's go deeper here uh into this.
苹果正处于 344 美元至 300 美元之间的价格整理阶段。它正好位于 320 美元水平的中间。我不知道今天反转的原因，但它是在正常的平均成交量下发生的。再次强调，苹果的横盘走势与市场其他部分一样。
Apple is stuck in a price unification phase between $344 and $300. It is exactly in the middle at the $320 level. I don't know the reason for this reversal today, but it's happening with a normal average trading volume. Once again, Apple's sideways movement is just like the rest of the market.
你说你对九月感到兴奋，那个名字下周有一个活动，苹果的“日出与闪耀”活动。我喜欢它的标题。我们可能会得到一些新手机，也许是一款可折叠iPhone。我们还有一位新CEO掌舵。那么，蒂姆，随着苹果进入由约翰·特诺斯领衔的下一增长阶段，你现在如何看待苹果？
You said you were excited for September, and that name has an event coming our way next week with Apple and their "Sunrise and Shine" event. I love its title . We might get some new phones, maybe a foldable iPhone . We also have a new CEO at the helm. So, Tim, how do you view Apple now, as they move into this next phase of growth with John Ternos at the forefront?
是的，如你所知，很明显大家都在想iPhone。现在，这就是我一直在谈论的叙事，追溯到六个多月前，或者天哪，实际上超过九个月前，关于苹果是人工智能领域中的隐藏赌注。
Yes, as you know, it's clear that the iPhone is what everyone is thinking about. Now, this is the narrative I've been talking about, going back more than six months, or God, actually more than nine months, about Apple being the hidden bet in the field of artificial intelligence.
苹果和微软对人工智能热潮采取了截然不同的策略。与此同时，苹果在很大程度上置身于这轮人工智能热潮之外，仅与OpenAI和Alphabet等公司签署了一些授权协议。
Apple and Microsoft have taken radically different approaches to the artificial intelligence boom . Meanwhile , Apple has largely stayed out of this AI boom, while signing some licensing deals with companies such as OpenAI and Alphabet.
那么，鉴于这两家公司对人工智能热潮的截然不同的策略，目前哪一家是更值得买入的股票呢？在过去十年中，苹果和微软在增加收入方面都做得非常出色。
So, given these two very different approaches to the AI boom, which of these two companies is the better stock to buy right now? Over the past decade, Apple and Microsoft have done an excellent job of increasing revenue.
另一个我密切关注的是苹果。苹果正在脱离近期低点。记住，这是财报后的下跌，所以它已经出现了相当不错的反弹。如果它填补了这个缺口，作为波段交易的做空机会，这就开始变得有趣了。那个位置非常引人注目。所以，我会把它放在我们的观察名单上。
Another one I'm watching closely is Apple. Apple trading off of its recent lows. Remember, this was the drop on earnings, so it's had a really nice rally back. If it fills this gap, this is starting to get interesting as a swing trade short. Very intriguing level right there. So, I'll keep that on our radar.
你向我们提出的另一个选择，不一定是在下跌时买入，但肯定是在转折点买入。我们将讨论 Apple，John Ternos 接任，以及“日出与闪耀”活动之前，预期我们可能会看到可折叠 iPhone。
Another option you presented to us, not necessarily about buying on the dip , but definitely about buying at a turning point. We will talk about Apple with John Ternos taking over, and also before the " Sunrise and Shine" event where expectations point to the possibility of us getting a foldable iPhone.
是的，看起来我们会得到可折叠 iPhone 和其他一些有趣的新产品。如你所知，有了新 CEO，这肯定会给 Apple 带来一些活力和创新。我认为他们现在处于非常好的位置，而且我认为这只会让 Apple 的未来变得更好。
Yes, it looks like we're going to get a foldable iPhone and some other interesting new products . As you know, with a new CEO, that should certainly bring some energy and innovation to Apple. I think they are in a really great position right now , and I think this will only improve things for Apple in the future .
苹果也是如此，SpaceX也是如此。特斯拉的看涨期权因此上涨。
So is Apple. So is SpaceX. Tesla calls on the back of that.
是的，SpaceX 2、Palunteer、苹果今天上午都表现良好。
Yeah, it is. SpaceX 2, Palunteer, Apple, all having good mornings.
Gman提到苹果即将突破327。有人采纳了我几天前提到的苹果多头缺口回补交易吗？有人参与吗？因为看起来我们正在向340迈进。
Gman mentioning Apple is about to take off crossing 327. Did anyone take the um Apple long gap fill trade that I talked about a number of days? Is anyone in this because it looks like we're on the march up towards 340.
苹果，你们在问苹果。让我看看。它继续走高。今天苹果的高点是32854。哦，苹果还有另一个缺口需要回补。看看日线图。这个缺口是在7月底形成的。八月大部分时间都在震荡横盘。现在随着新一个月的开始，我们已经攀升至320阻力位上方，现在正试图填补这个缺口。
苹果公司总营收增长了16%，达到1094亿美元，这一增幅令人印象深刻。此外，管理团队预计下一季度（截至9月）将再增长10%。
Apple recorded an impressive 16 % increase in total revenue to $109.4 billion . Furthermore, the management team anticipates another 10% growth in the next quarter, which will end in September.
这甚至是在苹果可折叠手机发布之前的情况，该手机预计可能在即将到来的假日季发布。这一切是否使苹果股票成为一个值得买入的投资机会？苹果拥有全球超过25亿台设备的用户基础。
This is even before the launch of Apple's foldable phone, which is expected to be released perhaps during the upcoming holiday season . Does all of this make Apple stock a good investment opportunity to buy? Apple benefits from a user base of over 2.5 billion devices worldwide .
该股表现糟糕，7号表现糟糕，除了苹果表现相当不错，苹果昨天最高涨到约22 328。但你必须保持节奏，因为走势并不那么干净。实际上，这个缺口现在很大。也就是说，你必须在这里卖出一些强势，买回一些，再卖出强势，再买回一些。
你不会得到我们喜欢的三天连续走势，不幸的是，情况就是这样，这就是我们所在的市场。
stock has been a disaster 7 has been a disaster besides Apple's been pretty good you Apple um went as high as what yesterday went as high as 22 328ish. Um but you've had to be in a rhythm with this because it hasn't been that clean. You know, you've you've had to actually this gap is way now. So um meaning you know you had to you had to be in here uh sell some strength, buy some back, sell some strength, buy some back. you're not getting like three-day sequences, which is what we like, you know, unfortunately that that's the case and that's the the market we live in.
我希望苹果能保持在322左右，这样下周可能会突破328以上。
I'd like to see Apple kind of hang around, hold 322ish so then maybe next week it gets a push above 328ish.
苹果在这里被高估了，特斯拉被严重高估了，对吧？所以，这两只股票因估值而被淘汰了，对吧？
Apple is overvalued here , and Tesla is seriously overvalued, right? So, these two stocks were eliminated due to valuation , right?
说实话，如果我只考虑短期，未来12个月我最相信哪只股票？也许是苹果。为什么是苹果？因为他们有很多现金，利率也相当不错，所以他们可以在这大量现金上获得良好的利润，对吧？我们知道他们的服务业务也取得了良好的成果。
让我们看看一些大盘股。苹果刚从布林带上轨回落。围绕这些枢轴点的移动并不太好。支撑线，这些红线，表现不佳。它们似乎只是在这里浮动。但蓝色布林带一直运作良好。比如这里出现做多信号。
我们看到跌破、推升、退出，推升到布林带上轨，下跌，触及，回升，而布林带目前正在收窄。那么，我认为这将引领我们走向何方？我认为苹果将略微走软，基于过去的表现。
Let's look at some of the big caps. We got Apple right out of the top of its bowlinger bands. Um moving around these pivots have not been very good. The support lines, these red ones, not been fantastic. They seem to be just kind of floating out here. But the blue bowlinger bands have been working great. See like long signal here. We saw breakdown, push up, exit here, push up to the top of the bowlinger band, drop down, hit it, come back, and that bowlinger is compressing right now. So, where do I think this this is going to lead us? Well, I think that Apple's going to be slightly softer based on past past action.
上周我们谈到的一张图表，Ed Zitron 刚刚猛烈抨击过，是关于英伟达的盈利，过去 12 个月的净利润与亚马逊、苹果的比较。我说：“天哪，这太惊人了。”他说：“不，不是的。不，不是的。
这不是真的。这都是加价。”我说：“不，不是的。不是加价。”我们看了营业利润。图表完全一样。英伟达的营业利润，也就是业务实际产生的利润。
One of the charts that we spoke about last week that Ed Zitron just steamrololled over was Nvidia's earnings, net income over the last 12 months compared to Amazon, uh, compared to Apple. And I said, "Holy [ __ ] this is remarkable." And he go, "No, it's not. No, it's not. It's not real. It's all the markups." "No, it's not. It's not the markups." We looked at operating earnings. It's the exact same chart. Operating earnings for Nvidia, what the business is actually generating.
苹果上涨 4.6%。
Apple up 4.6%
说到资本支出，谁不在花资本支出？苹果仅凭 iPhone 就仍是地球上第二大公司。这简直难以置信。服务和利润率惊人。他们没有拥有任何前沿模型，也没有大规模专用数据中心基础设施。谈不上有什么 AI。
他们全都外包了。他们只是制造手机，却是世界第二大公司。
Speaking of capex and who isn't spending capex? Apple remains the second largest company on Earth purely on the iPhone. You can't make this up. Crazy services and margins. They don't own any frontier models, they don't have any massive dedicated data center infrastructure. No AI to speak of. They outsource it all. They just make phones and it's the second biggest company in the world.
非常非常了不起，但这在不久的将来都会改变。我相信他们会被许多参与者超越，就像英伟达已经超越了他们一样。还会有更多后来者追赶他们。
Pretty pretty remarkable, but that will all change in the very near future. I believe they'll be eclipsed by many players like Nvidia have already eclipsed them already. There'll be many more coming for them as well.
你确实有，老实说，苹果，我的意思是，你得看我昨天的苹果视频。苹果开放 AAI。哦，天哪，让你对苹果股票垂涎欲滴。天哪，这是一只昂贵的股票。但是，干得好，苹果，干得漂亮。
You've got uh honestly Apple I mean you got to watch my Apple video yesterday. Apple open AAI. Oh man, makes you salivate over Apple stock. Holy moly, it's a pricey stock. Uh but uh man, great job. Fantastic job, Apple.
苹果上涨了约 2%，这太棒了。我的意思是，真的就是靠我们昨天谈到的那个 Ultra 芯片的推动。真的非常令人印象深刻。
Uh you've got Apple up about 2% uh which is fantastic. I mean just really riding the back of that uh ultra chip that we talked about yesterday. Really really impressive.
看起来不错，看起来看涨。全面来看，日线、周线、月线都表现良好。我不喜欢突破失败。特别是如果你拉出周线图，我们曾有一次上涨，然后我认为他们公布了财报，接着跳空低开，所以我不喜欢那部分。但总体来看，图形看起来相当不错，是看涨的。
Looks It looks nice. It looks bullish. Um across the board. You know, the daily, the weekly, the monthly. All look good. I don't like the breakout failure. Uh if you especially if you pull up the the weekly chart, we had a pop and then I think they reported earnings and then gap down, so I don't like that part. But overall, the picture looks looks pretty good. It's bullish.
