Yet Another Value Podcast 对 $EL 的判断变化

2026-08-20看涨
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
EL值得买入;当前估值通过资产提供下行保护,并有望重新评级至同行倍数。

假设ATL正常化顺利,他们仍将拥有现金余额。他们仍将拥有其机队的80%。而两年前,他们只拥有机队的50%。我一直在想这个问题。你说得对。这看起来像是这家公司盈利过高,对吧?你怎么能不担心它会均值回归,而股票表现不佳,因为那将非常困难。

assuming the ATL normalizes fine, they're still going to have a cash balance. They're still going to have They're still going to own 80% of their fleet. Like 2 years ago it was like it was only 50% of the fleet. I think about this all the time. You're right. Like this screams This thing is over-earning, right? Like how could you not be concerned that there's going to it's going to mean revert, and the stock's not going to work because it's just going to be very difficult.

我认为我会回顾他们上一个干净的年份,那实际上是夹在COVID和10月7日战争之间的2023年。在2023年,他们在资本支出、租赁和贷款摊销之后是盈利的。他们产生了大约1亿到2亿美元的自由现金流。

And I I think that I would I would point back to like their last clean year, which was really sandwiched between COVID and the and the war on October 7th was 2023. And in 2023, like they were profitable, you know, after CapEx, after leases, after, you know, amortization of loans. So, and they to the tune of like 100 to 200 million dollars in free cash flow.