SMH

Most importantly, I'm gauging bullish sentiment with this chart right here, the SMH, guys. And the SMH, as you see here, finished basically flat on the day, down .01%. Now, after hours, slipping just ever so slightly in anticipation of these Nvidia earnings. And I'll remind you guys, I've been highlighting these moving averages on this chart, and I've been doing so for a reason. You see this 50-daily moving average in blue that comes in through the screen. We had one day above it, and then a technical sell-off from that point. The sell-off has pushed price back into the parallel channel that price has been contained since the liberation day lows.

So, we've now dropped back into that trajectory. This trajectory, to remind you, began back here. We were very tight within that range for an awful long time before we dipped to the bottom and broke to the upside. Now, we're knocking on the door from the top coming down.

Okay, what I'm going to do now is switch to the SMH index. So, what did you say about SMH? We received a request for SMH analysis earlier in the program, and I said I would present it here.

Interestingly, I do n't usually conduct an analysis of SMH; Katie or the RV team do, and you can see that they were expecting this market to move downwards in this timeframe. There was a previous low here that corresponds to the low I'm going to show you in the Nasdaq index, and you can see here that the indicators are pointing downwards, which means it may go down again.

Now what I'm going to do is I'm going to look at SMH, XLF, XBI as proxies for the stock market because how these align. Then we'll look at the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 uh and if uh have a little time we'll look at the VIX and then I'll show you the market condition monitor uh moving forward.

I've done this with this SMH in the past.

Next up into the semis, guys, and then as you all know, I love following the semis as a leading indicator. And guys, what happened Friday is something all of you guys can follow because I've tried to go step-by-step to help you understand whether we're going to be bullish near-term with the semi in uh with the semis or we're going to be a little bit bearish.

In near-term, we've had little glimpses of hope with the semis pushing up above, which likely will push and carry the rest of the markets with them, but it hasn't happened yet. And all you got to do, guys, is just draw one trend line on your chart, get that at the high of the SMH, draw it down to the next major candle on the chart that occurred here on June 30th, and extend that all the way down.