TLT

Now, next, Don, you've brought us another bullish deal today, and you're bullish on the iShares TLT bond ETF , despite the global sell-off in bonds. So, explain the thesis here and what you expect the bonds to behave over the coming weeks.

Global bond sales? This is the right time to take advantage of this type of price movement . Bond vigilantes may appear where there is some selling activity in the bond world. Look , I focus a lot on futures products. I am watching "ZN", which of course are 10-year Treasury bond contracts. I am watching ZB, which is a 30-year Treasury bond . TLT is a very good combination , so to speak, of both.

If you were an investor in TLT, which is a very popular longdated treasury bond ETF out of EyesShares, you compounded at almost 8% a year positive through the 2010s. It was a very good money-making investment. In the 2020s, because real rates have exploded from being negative to being very positive, your kager, your compound annual growth rate over this decade so far has been negative 4.4%.

Uh people are selling down Treasuries really for for two reasons. One, because inflation is high, so they're expecting that at a certain point that the Fed may have to hike in order to tamper down inflation and every time we see further escalation in Iran, further move higher in the price of oil, that is transferring through to the TLT getting hit and and rates moving higher.

And and we saw at the market immediately basically sold the TLT down. We had a we had a big pop in the TLT so interest rates went lower but 2 days later the TLT was all the way back down. Interest rates were working their way back higher and the market was kind of saying, "You know, this little twist operation here is not enough."

The bonds, the bonds just got you know, they were they were getting hammered, and what I think happened in there is the Treasury Secretary said, "Let the shorts feel comfortable for a few days, then we'll go in and say something, and we'll we'll try to torch the short sellers."

Which they did, but then other people came back in and said, "Wait a minute, why did we cover our shorts? Let's add that short back on." Or are those shorts added to it?

It's very difficult to top talk the market into doing what you want it to do. This is the prior you know, prior low that became resistance once again. In order for these bonds to show any real signs of recovery in the intermediate term, they're going to have to not make a new low for the year, and they're going to have to get above 83 and a quarter.