英伟达的财报绝对会为AI交易的走势定下基调,而AI交易最近确实一直表现滞后,对吧?如果我们看图表,即使你调出英伟达,英伟达也是一只表现非常差的股票,可以说它确实在这里创了一个高点,但自5月份那个高点以来,它确实一直在大幅挣扎。
有一条趋势线我一直在密切关注,它回溯到2025年4月的低点,穿过2026年3月30日这里的枢轴低点,再到7月29日这里的枢轴低点。如果我们跌到这个位置,这条趋势线会守住,还是英伟达会向下突破?
NVDA 这一页 14 条观点条目,其中 0 条方向发生变化。
英伟达的财报绝对会为AI交易的走势定下基调,而AI交易最近确实一直表现滞后,对吧?如果我们看图表,即使你调出英伟达,英伟达也是一只表现非常差的股票,可以说它确实在这里创了一个高点,但自5月份那个高点以来,它确实一直在大幅挣扎。
有一条趋势线我一直在密切关注,它回溯到2025年4月的低点,穿过2026年3月30日这里的枢轴低点,再到7月29日这里的枢轴低点。如果我们跌到这个位置,这条趋势线会守住,还是英伟达会向下突破?
周三收盘后将是Nvidia。Nvidia盘后有财报,你知道的。嗯,周四,我们做了我们的统计概述,关于Nvidia实际上多久会推动市场一次,在过去10份财报中,该股大约有40%的时间出现了影响市场的走势,即10次中有4次。
嗯,地球上大多数人,如果不是所有人,都认为他们会超出盈利预期,超出销售额,然后上调指引。就这样,对吧?真正的问题当然是支出,以及他们所谓的周期性融资。聪明。这是我们现在都要谈论的新流行语吗?
我想更仔细地看看英伟达,因为英伟达基本上表示,对其竞争对手来说,游戏已经结束了。英伟达基本上表示,对其竞争对手来说,游戏已经结束了。
I want to take a closer look at Nvidia cuz Nvidia pretty much said it's game over for its competitors. Nvidia pretty much said it's game over for its competitors.
我想仔细看看四只我认为能从中大幅受益的股票,以及一只我认为需要做出一些改变的股票。如果他们不这样做,那么对这家AI巨头来说,情况可能会有点悲观。今天我想看看英伟达,这是英伟达的财报周。
I want to take a closer look at four stocks that I believe can benefit dramatically from this and one stock that I believe needs to make some changes. And if they don't, then things might be a little bearish for this AI giant. today I want to look at Nvidia and this is Nvidia's earnings week.
大新闻。本周英伟达财报即将发布。所以,这将是一个英伟达财报预览节目。我们将要我们将要审视并剖析这只股票,看看它是否值得你的时间和金钱,以及是否是你想要持有到财报发布的东西。
Big news. We have Nvidia earnings coming up this week. So, this is going to be a Nvidia earnings preview show. We're going to We're going to take a look and dissect the stock, see if it is worth your time and your money, and see if it's something you want to hold into earnings.
现在,这里,事先充分披露。A,我没有持有英伟达或纳斯达克的交易。所以,我在这场争斗中没有立场。对结果完全呃持不可知态度。
Now, here, full disclosure right up front. A, I have no trade on in Nvidia or Nasdaq. So, I have no dog in this fight. Completely uh agnostic to what the outcome is going to be.
所以,让我们明确一点,他说得确实很好,我尊重Zach所做的一切。所有这些听起来都很好,但看看我们多么快地略过了这些事情。我的意思是,他说了三个词。我得暂停一下来解释。
So, let's be clear, like he sounds really good, and I I respect Zach for what he's done and what he does. All this sounds really good, but see how quickly we gloss over these things. I mean, he says three words. I got to freaking pause it and explain.
Token生成,当你看看Google IO活动时,二阶导数已经转为负值。现在,部分原因是大数定律。但如果你已经在二阶导数上转为负值,而我们据称还处于早期,那么你就不再是指数增长了。
英伟达的财报会怎样?
What's going to happen with Nvidia earnings?
对于像英伟达这样的公司,有一点需要了解。市场预期英伟达将超出预期。所以你看待英伟达的方式不是“哦,英伟达将超出盈利预期”,而是我们已经预期英伟达会超出盈利预期。你知道这些是盈利预期。
好吧,我们预期这些预期会很低。市场的预期是盈利会达到这个水平。但市场的预期建立在历史上他们超出盈利预期X%的基础上。所以即使你错过了,比如你可以在指引上超出,但如果你错过了那些市场预期,股价就会暴跌。
This is something to know though for companies like Nvidia. Markets expect that market is going or that Nvidia is going to beat expectations. And so the way you have to look at Nvidia is not oh Nvidia is going to beat earnings. It's that we already expect Nvidia to beat earnings. You know these are the earnings expectations. Okay, we expect those to be low. The market's expectation is earnings are going to come in here. But markets expectations are built on historically they beat earnings by X%. And so even if you miss like you could beat on guidance but you miss those market expectations stock craters.
你看不到英伟达宣布了什么,比如他们与全球六大机构进行的联合AI合作。所以,如果英伟达是这些贷款的第一损失方,而事实确实如此,那只是措辞上的问题。
You don't see what Nvidia announces, you know, like what they did with this kind of joint AI operation with six of the largest institutions in the world. and speaking of Nvidia, earlier this month on the 10th of August, they announced a $500 $500 billion credit facility partner with Apollo, Black Rockck, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR. So, if Nvidia is the first loss on these loans, which which they are, um it's just again word smithing.
英伟达这样做与为OpenAI提供2500亿美元的担保有什么区别?你知道他们已经这么做了。
what's the difference of Nvidia doing this or a $250 billion back stop for open AI you know which they already have done.
英伟达周三公布财报。嗯,他们会超出预期。他们会给出上调的指引。我明白。但过去四个季度他们虽然超出了预期,股价却下跌了,对吧?
Nvidia reports Wednesday. Um, they'll beat the number. They'll guide up. I get that. But it's traded down the last four quarters and they've beaten, right?
我持有 AI 股票。我持有 Nvidia,我持有 Google,我持有 Tesla,我持有 SpaceX。
I own AI stocks. I own Nvidia. I own Google. I own Tesla. I own SpaceX.
如果你停止建设 AI 数据中心,那么 Nvidia 把芯片卖给谁?Nvidia 把芯片卖给谁?谁在购买 Nvidia 的 Vera Rubin 芯片?
if if you stop building AI data centers, then what does Nvidia sell their chips to? Who does Nvidia sell their chips to? Who's buying Nvidia, you know, Vera Rubin chips?
如果我们不在地球上建设数据中心,那么 Nvidia 就卖不出足够的 Vera Rubin 芯片。他们停止销售数据中心芯片,Nvidia 就会陷入困境。Nvidia 会陷入大麻烦。
If we don't build the data centers on Earth, then Nvidia doesn't sell enough Vera Rubin chips. They they stop selling data center chips and Nvidia struggles. Nvidia is in deep trouble.
巨头就是英伟达。他们下周公布财报。市值5.2万亿美元。这是个疯狂的数字,对吧?看我的整个屏幕都冻结了。这么荒谬的数字。5.2万亿美元。它是巨头。这很重要。这将影响整个市场。这将影响大量股票,包括我个人持有的一些股票。
the big dog. It's Nvidia. They're reporting earnings next week. $5.2 trillion market cap. That's a crazy number, right? Look at my whole screen just froze. Such a ridiculous number. $5.2 trillion. It's the big dog. It's going to be important. This is going to affect the entire market. This is going to affect a ton of stocks, including some stocks that I personally own.
现在,关于英伟达,这些是分析师的预期。好的。分析师预计营收略低于920亿美元,每股收益208,以及约1050亿美元的指引。
Now, when it comes to Nvidia, these are the what analysts are expecting. Okay. Analysts are expecting just under $92 billion of revenue, EPS of 208, and a guide for around $105 billion.
接下来看英伟达。本周初股价为225美元,哦,临近财报。我以为我们会涨。开玩笑,我们下跌了4.75%,本周收于214美元,就在财报前5天。
Moving on to Nvidia. Start of the week at 225 and oh, heading into earnings. I thought we would rise. Psych, we were down by 4 and 3/4% finish the week at 214 just 5 days before earnings.
现在,杰富瑞预计第二季度营收将大幅超出预期,包括进入“绿巨人模式”,我不太确定那是什么意思,但他们认为营收预期将增加30亿美元,目前为920亿美元。最高预期为966.6亿美元。
这个区间的收紧将在下周得到解决,届时英伟达将在周三收盘后公布财报。
This tightening of this range will be resolved next week as Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday after the close.
现在,我希望英伟达在财报公布前上涨。我概述的情景是,也许周一它会形成一个内包日。所以,我们可能会看到类似这样的情况,被包含在今天的区间之内。
Now, I'm hoping that Nvidia runs up ahead of earnings. The scenario I had outlined is maybe on Monday it does an inside day. So, we kind of see something like this, contained within today's range.
如果那样的话,周二我们可能会看到一次洗盘,然后为周三形成这样的走势。然后呢?那么,你就得看看它,然后说:“你想下注吗?”
It does that. Tuesday maybe we see a shakeout, and then it sets up like this for Wednesday. And then what? Well, then you've got to look at it and say, "Do you want to make a bet?"
本周我们“富习惯”雷达上最受关注的三件事包括:英伟达刚刚宣布的5亿美元融资交易、表现平淡但属利好的通胀数据,以及可能直接存入你支票账户的关税退税。
The three things sitting at the top of our Rich Habits radar this week included Nvidia's $500 million financing deal that was just announced, inflation data that came in pretty boring, which is good, and tariff refunds >> that you personally might get deposited to your checking account.
罗伯特,让我们深入探讨第一个故事:英伟达将其芯片转变为这种新资产类别。周一,英伟达与全球六家最大的金融机构签署了谅解备忘录,包括Apollo Global、BlackRock、Blackstone、Brookfield、Goldman Sachs和KKR,以调动超过500资本。
因为我们真的不知道,或者甚至英伟达,你知道,它也有点不同。
because we don't really know or maybe even Nvidia it's you know it's a little bit different as well.
是的,对我来说,微软可能是最接近我两个硬堆的,微软和英伟达。
Yeah, Microsoft to me is the one that probably Microsoft and Nvidia are the closest to being in my two hard piles.
最后两家公司将是苹果和英伟达。其中一个就是,如果你看财务数据和股价图表,这家公司已经存在很长时间了,但投资界真正开始谈论它是在三到四年前,差不多就是人们开始谈论英伟达的时候。
The last two companies would be Apple and Nvidia. and then one of them is you know basically if you look at the financials and also at the stock chart this company exists for a long time but really the investment world is talking about it now for three years 3 to four years that's pretty much the time that people talk about Nvidia.
GDP 报告中的每一个进口数字,半导体、电信设备、工业机械,都可以追溯到以英伟达为支柱的 AI 建设。如果你现在在 Wall Street favorites.com 上看英伟达,你会看到,尽管近期股价波动且 GDP 存在不确定性,目标价仍为 318 美元,意味着较当前水平有超过 60% 的上涨空间。我们都认为英伟达便宜,亚马逊也便宜。
Every single one of those import numbers in the GDP report, semiconductors, telecom equipment, industrial machinery, traces back to the AI buildout that Nvidia is the backbone of. If you look at Nvidia on Wall Street favorites.com right now, you'll see that despite the recent price action and volatility with GDP, the price target is still at $318, representing over a 60% upside from here. We both think that Nvidia is cheap, Amazon is cheap.
它们会像最近的 Micron 以及英伟达和所有这些股票一样,回归现实。
They're going to come back down to earth like Micron has recently and Nvidia and all these stocks.